央行货币政策报告文本信息、宏观经济与股票市场

本文利用金融情感词典和文本分析技术,分析中国人民银行货币政策执行报告的文本情绪、文本相似度和文本可读性等多维文本信息,刻画央行货币政策执行报告的文本特征,探究货币政策报告的文本信息与宏观经济和股票市场的关系。实证研究发现,货币政策报告的文本情绪的改善会引起显著为正的股票市场价格反应,报告文本相似度的增加会引起股票市场波动性的显著降低,报告可读性对公布后股票市场的波动性影响不显著。货币政策报告文本情绪还与诸多宏观经济指标显著相关。进一步研究发现,引起股票市场显著反应的是报告文本情绪中反映货币政策指引的部分,而反映宏观经济历史状态的部分对股票市场的影响不显著。本文从文本大数据分析角度证明了我国央行沟通的有效性,对国内央行沟通相关研究形成了有益补充。     

Cluster Analysis for mixed data: An application to credit risk evaluation

Credit risk is one of the main risks faced by a bank to provide financial products and services to clients. To evaluate the financial performance of clients, several scoring methodologies have been proposed, which are based mostly on quantitative indicators. This paper highlights the relevance of both quantitative and qualitative features of applicants and proposes a new methodology based on mixed data clustering techniques. Indeed, cluster analysis may prove particularly useful in the estimation of credit risk. Traditionally, clustering concentrates only on quantitative or qualitative data at a time; however, since credit applicants are characterized by mixed personal features, a cluster analysis specific for mixed data can lead to discover particularly informative patterns, estimating the risk associated with credit granting.     

An integrated SWOT based fuzzy AHP and fuzzy MARCOS methodology for digital transformation strategy analysis in airline industry

Driven by business strategies, digital transformation (DT) facilitates dramatic change in air passenger behavior. This study aims to determine and analyze different DT strategies (DTSs) with the help of an integrated SWOT-based fuzzy AHP-MARCOS methodology that is proposed for the first time in the literature for this purpose. This methodology is validated with a case study concerning the airline industry in Turkey. The weights of the SWOT factors are determined with the fuzzy AHP method. The fuzzy MARCOS approach is used to select the most suitable DTS. The most appropriate strategy is obtained as “focusing on differentiated digital customer experience and service quality by the adaptation of business models to DT to provide benefits”.     

Light at the end of the tunnel: Visitors' virtual reality (versus in-person) attraction site tour-related behavioral intentions during and post-COVID-19

Consumer behavior is changing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, thus compelling attraction sites to find new ways of offering safe tours to visitors. Based on protection motivation theory, we develop and test a model that examines key drivers of visitors' COVID-19-induced social distancing behavior and its effect on their intent to use virtual reality-based (vs. in-person) attraction site tours during and post-COVID-19. Our analyses demonstrate that visitor-perceived threat severity, response efficacy, and self-efficacy raise social distancing behavior. In turn, social distancing increases (decreases) visitors' intent to use virtual reality (in-person) tours during the pandemic. We find social distancing to boost visitors' demand for advanced virtual tours and to raise their advocacy intentions. Our results also reveal that social distancing has no effect on potential visitors' intent to use virtual reality vs. in-person tours post-the pandemic. We conclude by discussing vital implications that stem from our analyses.     

Social servicescape’s impact on customer perceptions of the hospitality brand – The role of branded social cues

This research examines how the social servicescape (i.e., employee-customer, employee-employee and customer-customer) impacts brand-related outcomes via branded social cues. Informed by theories related to cue consistency and conceptual fluency, results from three experimental studies conducted across sectors and scales of hospitality businesses (i.e., luxury hotel, high-end restaurant and limited-service hotel), indicate that branded social servicescape cues have direct, indirect and interactive effects on brand-related outcomes. In luxury contexts, when the brand’s personality is absent in employee-customer social cues, the negative effects were buffered if brand personality is reflected in employee-employee social cues. Conceptual fluency mediated the relationship between branded employee-customer social cues and brand-related outcomes, which was moderated by branded employee-employee social cues. Conceptual fluency also mediated the relationship between branded customer-customer social cues and brand-related outcomes. This research sheds light on how hospitality firms can leverage branded social cues to enhance customer evaluation of the hospitality brand.     

Network structure,portfolio diversification and systemic risk

We investigate the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk, where the network effect is incorporated. We analyze three kinds of interbank networks, namely, random networks, small-world networks and scale-free networks. We show that the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk depends on interbank network structures and shock types. First, systemic risk increases first and then reduces with the increase of the level of portfolio diversification in the case of the individual shock. Second, in the case of the systemic shock, systemic risk reduces with the increases of the level of portfolio diversification. Third, banking systems with scale-free network structures are the most stable, and those with small-world network structures are the most vulnerable.     

Effects of crisis response tone and spokesperson's gender on employer attractiveness

Timely apologies to key publics on social media are becoming an important aspect of crisis recovery but little is known of how the spokesperson’s characteristics and the tone of apology may influence the outcome. Recognising the importance of the need to attract quality workforce, this study examines the impact of social media response to a preventable crisis on organisational attractiveness. Specifically, a 2 (message tone: corporate/formal vs. human/informal) x 2 (spokesperson’s gender: male vs. female) between-subjects factorial design was used to test the effectiveness of an apology. The results suggest a significant moderated mediation effect. We find that account acceptance mediates the relationship between message tone and organisational attractiveness, and this effect is conditional on gender of the spokesperson. The results are relevant to crisis managers and brand managers that seek to attract and retain talents.     

行为经济学视角下的社会保障理论演进

社会保障系统通过社会与个体的风险共担，增进了个人、家庭和社会的福利水平，对就业、消费、投资均有显著影响。过去社会保障理论侧重信息约束和跨期决策下的机制设计，通过政府干预来实现有效的风险和成本共担，进而有效化解社会成员所面临的各种风险。但这些干预机制有可能会对就业等产生负面影响。近年来，行为与实验经济学开始进入社会保障理论的研究，新的理论试图从理性约束视角来理解社会保障系统的性质及其影响，并提出了全新的助推机制的设计理念与思路。迄今的研究发现，干预机制和助推机制各有千秋，通过合理的互补与替代，能够更好地实现社会保障系统的有效运行。     

Microfinance and social capital formation- a social network analysis approach

The microcredit program has emerged as an important poverty alleviation strategy over the last three decades, and several studies have examined its economic impacts on the community well-being. However, far too little attention has been paid to the effects of micro credits on community social connection and solidarity. This paper aims to examine the application of Social Network Analysis (SNA) to explore the impact of the rural microcredit fund on community social capitals. In doing so, the data on interactions of four rural development groups' members before and after the microcredit project implementation were collected using participatory workshops in Neyzar village of Qom province in Iran. The data were analyzed by Ucinet software, and the socio-graphs were produced by the NetDraw application. The results show that, more people have been involved in the social interactions after the project implementation and there was statistically significant increase in density and decrease in centralization of cooperation network. Furthermore, there were no important distinctions in centrality of people with various educational levels before and after the project implementation. Overall, it can be concluded that, the microfinance initiative considerably promotes the community social capital and participation in the rural development activities. Moreover, the SNA techniques are applicable as an impact assessment tool to investigate changes in community social capital.